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專欄 - 管理實(shí)踐課

我和機(jī)器人的PK

Stanley Bing 2016年03月10日

生死循環(huán)是自然規(guī)律,實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的興衰也是正常的。在自己的實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)感受到壓力時(shí),應(yīng)該反思自身存在的問題,以及社會(huì)大環(huán)境,找到解決辦法。
機(jī)器人能完成我的工作嗎?拼體力,機(jī)器人當(dāng)然更勝一籌;但是拼情商,機(jī)器人就不是我們的對(duì)手了。所以,會(huì)思考、會(huì)拉關(guān)系、會(huì)拍馬屁的人不用太擔(dān)心被機(jī)器人搶走飯碗。當(dāng)然,最理想的情形是人機(jī)結(jié)合,一半人類,一般機(jī)器,等到退休以后再全身心做回人。

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????自從我的保潔機(jī)器人碾過(guò)我的腳面,還弄壞了我的鞋,我就一直在想,機(jī)器人到底能不能代替人類完成工作。我尤其認(rèn)為我所從事的管理工作還是安全的。即便職場(chǎng)面臨著機(jī)器人入侵的威脅,但管理這種工作還不是機(jī)器人在頭上畫一個(gè)笑臉就能取代的,而他們的笑臉背后,只是肩膀上的一個(gè)金屬物體,當(dāng)然他們的肩膀也不是真正的肩膀。

????但現(xiàn)在我卻不那么確定了。因?yàn)閾?jù)《紐約時(shí)代》(New York Times )報(bào)道,麻省理工學(xué)院(MIT)的兩位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家近日表示:“自動(dòng)化的發(fā)展速度正在加快,而且機(jī)器人正在向新的職場(chǎng)領(lǐng)域進(jìn)軍,比如過(guò)去我們一向認(rèn)為電腦無(wú)法代替的白領(lǐng)工作?!睋Q句話說(shuō),可能讓我的工作不保的,不僅僅有并購(gòu)、重組、以及其他從事管理顧問行業(yè)的同行,現(xiàn)在還多了個(gè)機(jī)器人。

????你知道嗎,我并不認(rèn)為目前或不遠(yuǎn)的將來(lái)就會(huì)跑出個(gè)機(jī)器人來(lái)取代我的工作。我們來(lái)分析一下情況。

????首先,機(jī)器人能夠長(zhǎng)時(shí)間在高壓下工作,即使最后高層管理者把興趣轉(zhuǎn)移到別的事情上,項(xiàng)目無(wú)疾而終,它們也不會(huì)沮喪嗎?我想應(yīng)該不會(huì)。機(jī)器人不會(huì)感到失望或是生氣。他們不用吃不用喝,也不會(huì)倒在沙發(fā)上睡著了,甚至都不用回家!因此,這一輪比拼,機(jī)器人得一分。

????機(jī)器人在開會(huì)時(shí)能夠不打盹、不涂涂畫畫、不搞小動(dòng)作嗎?當(dāng)然可以。但是機(jī)器人是否能在會(huì)上提出觀點(diǎn)鮮明的真知灼見,從大家的討論中提取要點(diǎn),從而確保它的發(fā)言條理一致,而且不招高管層討厭呢?或許可以做得到,但是不會(huì)向你我那樣用謹(jǐn)小慎微或派頭十足的方式提出來(lái)。

????機(jī)器人能像我們一樣談笑風(fēng)生、妙語(yǔ)連珠地讓氣氛活躍起來(lái)嗎?不能。不過(guò)話說(shuō)回來(lái),機(jī)器人的頭腦里可以儲(chǔ)存一大堆笑話,在大家陷入沉默的時(shí)候丟出來(lái)一兩個(gè)。這些在電腦控制下講出的笑話甚至可能比人類講出來(lái)的更好笑,尤其是與我知道的笑話相比。

????那拍馬屁呢?我想在這一點(diǎn)上我還是有優(yōu)勢(shì)的。當(dāng)我從電梯出來(lái),電梯對(duì)我說(shuō)“祝您愉快”時(shí),我認(rèn)為這句話毫無(wú)意義。因此那些能把領(lǐng)導(dǎo)拍得心花怒放的工作可能還是安全的。

????那么管理技能呢?當(dāng)下屬報(bào)怨、要求晉升、要求指導(dǎo)、要求情感關(guān)注的時(shí)候,一個(gè)安卓機(jī)器人能耐心傾聽嗎?當(dāng)然能。老實(shí)說(shuō),機(jī)器人干這個(gè)比我更輕松。

????當(dāng)然,機(jī)器人不能嘮閑嗑兒。比如我就想象不出一個(gè)銷售員機(jī)器人是什么樣的。而且機(jī)器人也不能和同事一起啃香腸三明治,也不能在下班后和同事喝上一杯聯(lián)絡(luò)感情。當(dāng)然你也可以設(shè)計(jì)出一個(gè)更蠢一點(diǎn)、行事更不合禮節(jié)一點(diǎn)的機(jī)器人。我想一個(gè)喝得醉醺醺的機(jī)器人可能比一半以上我認(rèn)識(shí)的人更有意思。

????Ever since my Roomba carpet-cleaning robot ran over my foot and masticated my shoe, I have been wary of robots as substitutes for actual working persons. I particularly felt that my job in management was safe from the incursion of machines with friendly faces painted on the front of their heads, or whatever you call the metal constructions atop their shoulders, if those are indeed shoulders.

????Now I'm not so sure. Apparently there are two economists from MIT who believe, as the New York Times put it recently, "that the pace of automation is accelerating and that robotics is pushing into new areas of the workforce like white-collar jobs that were previously believed to be beyond the scope of computers." In other words, my position is now challenged not only by mergers, restructurings, and the incursions of management consultants who have to earn their bread and butter by eliminating mine, but also by robots.

????Well, you know what? I don't think there's a robot alive or on the horizon who could do my job. Let's look at it.

????Could a robot work long hours under intense pressure on a project only to see it evaporate when senior management turns its gaze to other enthusiasms? Well ... I guess so. Robots don't get frustrated or angry. They don't have drinks with dinner and fall asleep on the couch, either. They don't even need to go home! So ... fine. Chalk one up for the robots.

????Can a robot sit in long meetings without dozing, doodling, or disgracing itself? Okay, yes again. Ah, but could it contribute salient observations to secure its status, drawing on past discussions to make sure that what it said was organizationally consistent and not obnoxious to senior management? Probably. But not with the subtlety or panache that you or I would bring to the job.

????Can a robot interject a witticism or bon mot that adroitly lightens the mood? No! On the other hand, it could be stocked with a bank of jokes to deploy during silences. Such cybernetic jests would probably be even funnier than when cracked by a human being, especially the ones I know.

????What about sucking up? I think I have the edge here. I know that when an elevator says, "Have a nice day," it means nothing to me. So it's possible that jobs that support executives with big egos are still safe.

????How about management skills? Could an android listen to the whining, requests for advancement, and entreaties for guidance and affection that pour from subordinates? Sure it could. Frankly, all that would be easier on the robot than it is on me.

????Certainly, a robot cannot schmooze. I can't imagine a sales robot, for instance. And it won't be able to enjoy a sausage sandwich with the guys, or forge a bond with its colleagues over a vat of martinis after work. Although I guess you could program a robot to get progressively more stupid and inappropriate. A drunk robot would probably be more entertaining than half the guys I know.

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