惠普漲跌可能影響戴爾競價(jià)
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????上周一，我與一位銀行家通了電話。這位銀行家堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為，邁克爾?戴爾和銀湖資本（Silver Lake Partners）收購戴爾公司（Dell）的交易不可能以每股13.65美元的價(jià)格成交。他覺得，自從戴爾董事會(huì)接受這個(gè)價(jià)格以來，市場情況已經(jīng)改變了很多，兩個(gè)月來惠普（Hewlett-Packard）股價(jià)大漲就是明證。 ????兩相比較，不僅股東們會(huì)拒絕現(xiàn)有出價(jià)，也有助于黑石集團(tuán)（The Blackstone Group）和卡爾?伊坎（Carl Icahn）等競爭對(duì)手的更高出價(jià)獲得銀行融資。 ????最近的代理委托書顯示，銀湖資本在2月4日提交了每股13.65美元的出價(jià)。在此之前，已有多次私下密商和外部活動(dòng)，包括彭博（Bloomberg）報(bào)道稱，一項(xiàng)交易正在進(jìn)行中。 ????當(dāng)日，惠普股價(jià)開盤報(bào)16.31美元。昨日，這只股票開盤報(bào)23.73美元，漲幅近45.5%。 ????如今，不只是我聯(lián)系的這位銀行家認(rèn)為，戴爾股價(jià)應(yīng)比2月4日的價(jià)格高45.5%，特別是考慮到幾周前就已經(jīng)傳出戴爾可能被全面收購的消息。但在消息傳出（1月14日）前，戴爾的股價(jià)走勢也會(huì)跟惠普如出一轍嗎？倘若如此，上周二戴爾的開盤價(jià)應(yīng)該達(dá)到15.71美元。 ????然后，上周二早間有消息稱，高盛（Goldman Sachs）將惠普評(píng)級(jí)降至“賣出”。惠普股價(jià)下跌超過6%，截至本文撰寫時(shí)該股報(bào)21.90美元。用前面這位銀行家的類比法，戴爾也應(yīng)被降級(jí)。 ????它意味著自戴爾可能被全盤收購的消息泄露以來，惠普股價(jià)累計(jì)僅上漲了33%。如果把這一輪新的漲幅套用在戴爾股票上，它當(dāng)前的股價(jià)應(yīng)該達(dá)到14.50美元。 ????這個(gè)價(jià)格顯然高于銀湖資本當(dāng)前每股13.65美元的出價(jià)，比黑石的每股14.25美元出價(jià)也高一點(diǎn)（但比卡爾?伊坎的出價(jià)略低一點(diǎn)）。但這是下行軌跡的反映，不是上行。 ????由戴爾有些股東可能希望看到更高的出價(jià)，還有些人指望大批現(xiàn)有股東否決當(dāng)前的交易。對(duì)這些人而言，這就會(huì)產(chǎn)生一個(gè)問題。如果惠普眼下的經(jīng)歷只是一個(gè)小插曲，那還不是什么大問題。但如果股價(jià)下滑持續(xù)一周或者更長的時(shí)間，而眼下只是一個(gè)開始，那么每股13.65美元的出價(jià)或許會(huì)變成最好的選擇。 ????譯者：早稻米 |
????Yesterday I spoke with a banker who insisted that Michael Dell and Silver Lake Partners would never get their Dell (DELL) buyout done at $13.65 per share. He felt that the market had changed too much since the offer was accepted by Dell's board, as evidenced by Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) stock surge over the past two months. ????Not only would the comparison spur shareholders to reject the existing offer, but it also would help rivals like The Blackstone Group (BX) and Carl Icahn secure bank financing for higher bids. ????Silver Lake arrived at the $13.65 per share figure on February 4, according to a recent proxy statement. This was after several machinations and outside events, including an earlier Bloomberg report that a deal was in the works. ????That day, Hewlett-Packard stock opened at $16.31 per share. Yesterday it opened at $23.73 per share, or nearly 45.5% higher. ????Now not even my banker is suggesting that Dell would be trading 45.5% higher than it was on Feb. 4 -- particularly given that news of a possible buyout had leaked several weeks earlier. But might it not at least have mirrored HP since before the leak (Jan. 14)? In that case, Dell would have opened today at around $15.71 per share. ????Then came word this morning that Goldman Sachs (GS) had downgraded HP to "sell." Company shares fell more than 6%, and as of this writing are trading at $21.90. Using the banker's analogy, Dell also would have been downgraded. ????What this means is that HP stock now is up only 33% from where it was before news of a Dell buyout leaked. And if you apply that new premium to Dell, its current stock price would be $14.50 per share. ????That's obviously higher than the current Silver Lake offer of $13.65 per share, and even a bit above the $14.25 per share that Blackstone has indicated (albeit lower than Carl Icahn's $15 suggestion). But it's reflective of a downward trajectory, rather than of an upward one. ????This could prove problematic for Dell shareholders who are counting on a superior offer, or on large existing shareholders to kill the current deal. If today's HP experience is just a hiccup, then no big deal. If it becomes the beginning of a slide that lasts a week or more, however, then $13.65 may begin to look like the best possible option. |
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